3.4
Global trends by end-use sector
The increase of the share of global electricity demand in total final energy demand is a direct result of the effect of decreasing demand coupled with the lower weight in the total of the least electrified sector – the transport sector. When looking at the sectoral breakdown, the increase of global electrification is much smaller for each sector than at TFC level. The main drivers and the country differences by sector are briefly described in the following section.
Buildings sector
Transport sector
Industry sector
The buildings sector includes the residential, commercial and public services sectors,6 and accounts for almost 30% of total global final energy demand with shares that typically range between 20% and 40% depending on the country. The residential sector accounts for the largest share of the buildings sector (at more than 70% at the world level) but with a lower level of electrification compared with the services sector, which usually has a much higher share of electrification. Notable exceptions include the United States, Canada and Japan, where the two sectors consume a comparable total amount of energy and for which the electrification rates are similar between the two subsectors.
The effects of the Covid‑19 crisis where strict lockdowns were enforced in many countries meant these two sectors were diametrically opposed in regard to changes in power consumption at both global and country levels. Electricity demand in the residential sector increased in 2020 compared with 2019 in almost all countries, with few exceptions such as India. Globally, electricity demand in the sector increased by more than 700 petajoules (PJ), with more than 60% of the growth coming from China and the United States (Figure 3.8). This increase was more than compensated by the drop in the services sector, for which only China and Russia registered a stable electricity demand, while it did drop in all other countries with percentages between 8% and 22%.
The net effect of the sum of the residential and services sector at a global level was a net decline in both electricity and total energy demand. However, as electricity consumption declined less than the overall energy demand for the sector, the global electrification increased, but at a much lower rate than the average of 2010‑2019. Over the previous decade, the share of electricity in total global energy demand increased more than three times faster than from 2019 to 2020, as its growth accounted for over two-thirds of incremental demand (Figure 3.9).
The change of mix in each country in 2020 was therefore largely due to the effects of Covid‑19. The resulting net effect of the residential and services sectors changed significantly across the countries analysed. They can be summarised in five groups:
China was the only country with continued growth of both electricity and other fuels. As the latter grew more than electricity, the electrification growth slowed significantly with respect to 2010‑2019.
Countries where electricity consumption changed marginally, but with sharply decreasing use of other fuels, such as Japan, Russia and Chile. This led to their share of electricity in the mix to increase sharply, and in particular for Russia and Japan.
Countries where electricity consumption decreased less than other fuels, such as the United States, Canada, France and Mexico, with electrification increasing in the former three and remaining stable in Mexico.
Countries where electricity consumption decreased significantly more than for other fuels, such as Italy, Colombia, Spain and Germany, resulting in a decrease of electrification.
Countries where electricity consumption decreased but the use of other fuels increased, such as India, Brazil and Morocco. Given the sharp difference between the two fuel trends, India and Brazil saw the largest drop in the electrification rate among the countries analysed.
6 The commercial and public services sector – here defined as the “services sector” – includes commercial facilities (such as offices, shops, hotels and restaurants) and public buildings (such as schools, hospitals and public offices).
The transport sector accounts for just over one-quarter of total final energy demand in the world, but for less than 2% of total electricity demand. Global energy demand in the sector increased by 20% over 2010‑2019, to drop by 14% in just one year – in 2020. The reduction in oil demand accounted for 86% of the total decrease in final energy demand at a world level, principally in the transport sector, with the countries analysed accounting for almost half of this reduction.
A decrease of oil demand in the sector was observed for all countries analysed (Figure 3.10), albeit in different shares and volumes, while electricity demand diminished by a much smaller percentage (at 2.5%), as it was partially compensated by an increase in China. Oil demand dropped by around 10-15% in most countries, with the exceptions of China, Russia and Brazil (at around 6%), Italy and Spain (at around one-quarter) and Mexico (at 40%).
The reduction in oil demand accounted for 86% of the total decrease in final energy demand at a world level, principally in the transport sector.
The largest decline of oil demand in the global transport was in the road subsector in absolute levels (as it accounted for 52% of the overall decrease), followed by the aviation sector (almost 40% of the total), which saw the largest relative drop – at ‑44% year-on-year. Global electricity demand in the sector declined mostly in the rail sector and was partially compensated by the increase in road use – almost all due to the increase in China.
The industry sector is responsible for almost 40% of global final energy demand, and for a similar share of total electricity demand, with a resulting average share of around 21%. The electrification rate of the countries analysed varies significantly, ranging from just above 12% in Russia to around 35% in Italy, Mexico, Morocco and Chile, reflecting the resources available and the structure and size of the industries present in the country.
The industry sector is very complex, and includes many subsectors, with different dynamics and evolutions. The impact of the Covid‑19 crisis on energy demand was therefore quite varied across the countries analysed. At a world level, energy demand in 2020 decreased by less than 1%, as a stronger drop in other countries was counterbalanced by China consumption.
The increase in China contributed to limit significantly the drop of electricity demand in the rest of the world, as well as the drop for natural gas demand. The increase for these two fuels were equivalent to 80% and 30% of the energy demand reduction in the rest of the world, respectively. The impact was even stronger for oil products, as the increased demand in China was larger than the drop in the rest of the world, by more than 40%.
The increase in China contributed to limit significantly the drop of electricity demand in the rest of the world, as well as the drop for natural gas demand.
As in the case of the buildings sector, the evolution of the country trends from 2019 to 2020 can be summarised in five groups in terms of impact in absolute and relative terms (Figure 3.11):
Countries with increasing consumption of both electricity and other fuels, such as China and Brazil. China almost tripled the increase of energy demand in 2020 with respect to the average 2010‑2019, with electrification slightly decreasing as electricity growth did not keep pace with other fuels.
Countries where electricity consumption decreased less than other fuels, such as in Italy, Chile, Japan, Morocco and Canada, leading to an increase in their electrification rate.
Countries where electricity consumption decreased more than for other fuels in proportion to their share in 2019, resulting in a more moderate decrease of electrification in 2020. These countries include the United States, Mexico, France, Germany and India.
Countries where electricity consumption decreased as much as or more than other fuels, resulting in a stronger decrease of electrification in 2020, such as in Spain and Colombia.
Countries with decreasing electricity demand but increasing use of other fuels, such as Russia, leading to a decline in electrification rate.