Brazil has one of the highest decarbonised power sectors in the world, with hydropower accounting for about 64% of the mix in 2020. Due to the natural variability of hydropower, its availability over the years can fluctuate markedly. In Brazil, it is often thermal generation (typically gas-fired) picking up the shortfall. In 2020, with slightly decreasing electricity demand with respect to 2019 and increasing generation from bioenergy, wind and solar photovoltaic (PV), generation from gas- and coal-fired plants decreased respectively by 12% and 18%. This resulted in an increase of the share of low-carbon generation (cutting in half the loss of share relative to 2010) and more than a 10% decrease in the CO2 emissions intensity from 2019 to 2020, reaching a level unseen since 2012.
In 2021, the Brazilian president committed the country to climate neutrality by 2050 (UN, 2021). To reach this goal, a change in the electrification pace of all sectors will be needed through 2030 and beyond, as well as further decarbonisation in power generation, reaching levels around 95% by 2030 and progressing towards fully decarbonised power in the years thereafter. While the increased use of bioenergy in transport and industry over the past decade helped reduce the space-for-action, an increased use of electricity will be needed in final sectors to further exploit the remaining potential.